引述 Matthew Green：我们有 1% 概率身处 Minicrypt，15% 概率失去对现有公钥加密算法的信心
Quoting Matthew Green
Matthew Green认为，我们有1%的概率身处公钥加密不可能存在的假想世界 Minicrypt，并有15%的概率在功能上失去对现有公钥加密算法的信心。AI制造意外的速度与人类更换标准的速度相差数量级，只有提前准备才能应对这类突发情况。
9th October 2026
Everyone is very concerned about being respectable, so I’m going to be the goofball who raises worst-case possibilities. I think there is a 1% chance we live in Minicrypt, and a 15% chance we functionally lose confidence in our existing public-key encryption algorithms. [...]
The problem here is that the speed of AI producing surprises, and the speed of human beings replacing standards (even with the very best AI assistance) are just orders of magnitude different. You only recover from a surprise like this if you do the preparation in advance.
— Matthew Green, on Twitter. I looked it up and Minicrypt is Russell Impagliazzo’s hypothetical world in which public-key encryption is impossible.
来源：Simon Willison · simonwillison.net