更便宜的 AI tokens 正推动需求增长，这是 Jensen Huang 的最佳情景
Cheaper AI tokens are driving more demand, and that's Jensen Huang's best-case scenario
AI tokens价格持续下降却带动需求增长，Jevons 悖论让 Jensen Huang 的最佳情景成为可能：使用量增速超过单价跌幅。Ornn、Silicon Data 和 Bloomberg 截至 August 2026 的数据表明，H100 GPU 租赁价格持平或上升。若 AI 需求趋于平缓，芯片、内存、能源与云服务产业链及相关市场都可能承压。
Oct 11, 2026
Jevons' paradox is Jensen's best friend. Data from Ornn, Silicon Data, and Bloomberg (as of August 2026) shows what a16z calls a textbook Jevons paradox in the AI market. Token prices keep dropping, but H100 GPU rental prices hold steady or climb. Cheaper tokens unlock AI agents, automation, and new applications, so volume grows faster than per-unit costs fall. How much demand comes from humans versus the systems themselves isn't clear, since agentic AI burns through tokens at a staggering rate. Compute demand could be artificially inflated, and even modest human usage growth could trigger outsized hardware needs.
The whole system rests on one assumption: AI usage has to grow fast enough to offset falling token prices. As long as it does, hardware stays scarce and expensive. If demand flattens, the chain from chip makers and memory suppliers to energy providers and cloud companies takes a hit. Markets could spiral from there, and how sensitive they already are became clear when US stocks dropped on reports that OpenAI's annualized revenue might be lower than previously reported.
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来源：The Decoder · the-decoder.com