DeepMind 创始人哈萨比斯将 AGI 时间预期缩短至两到三年
Deepmind founder Hassabis shortens AGI timeline from five to two to three years
Google DeepMind 创始人 Demis Hassabis 认为，AGI 可能在两到三年内到来；他将 AGI 定义为具备与人类大脑相当的完整认知范围。此前他曾预计 AGI 还需三到五年，并提出“爱因斯坦测试”：仅用 1901 年以前的知识训练的系统，能否重现爱因斯坦 1905 年的论文。他还主张由政府监管、行业出资设立监督委员会，在模型发布前进行审查。
哈萨比斯把 AGI 时间预期缩短至两到三年，并给出以人类认知范围和“爱因斯坦测试”为核心的判断标准，呈现了他的预测依据。
Oct 21, 2026
Demis Hassabis, Google Deepmind founder and Nobel laureate in chemistry, now believes AGI could arrive within two to three years. He defines AGI as a system matching the full cognitive range of the human brain.
That timeline keeps shrinking. Earlier this year, he said three to five years. "It's going to happen soon. My estimate keeps moving closer to the present," he told the Wall Street Journal. His litmus test is the "Einstein test": Could a system trained only on pre-1901 knowledge reproduce Einstein's 1905 papers?
Hassabis has compared AGI's impact to "10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed." Since stepping down from Google DeepMind, he's focused on Google's drug discovery AI spin-off Isomorphic Labs. On safety, he recently pitched an industry-funded oversight board under government control to vet models before release. Bad regulation, he warns, is worse than none.
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来源：The Decoder · the-decoder.com