印度 IT 股票与 AI：看涨与看跌的两种观点

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Indian IT stocks and AI: These are the bull and bear cases

EditorAmbar Warrick

Stock Markets

EditorAmbar Warrick

Published Oct 13, 2026, 12:19 AM

Indian IT stocks and AI: These are the bull and bear cases

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Indian IT stocks and AI: These are the bull and bear cases

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In this article:

Investing.com -- India’s top IT stocks are all trading down so far in 2026, pressured by growing anxiety over disruptions in their traditional consulting business from artificial intelligence. But a few bull cases have also emerged.

Tata Consultancy (TCS): ₹2,208 (+3.91%, as of Oct 13, 9:35 AM IST) || Market Cap: $80.41B || P/E 14.7x || 1Y: -26.4%

Infosys (INFY): ₹1,033.5 (+1.32%) || Market Cap: $43.21B || P/E 12.9x || 1Y: -29.1%

HCL Tech (HCLT): ₹1,266.7 (+3.57%) || Market Cap: $34.61B || P/E 18.1x || 1Y: -14.5%

Wipro (WIPR): ₹165.52 (+2.30%) || Market Cap: $16.72B || P/E 12.1x || 1Y: -31.5%

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The Bane Evidence

Revenue in USD has stalled. Tata Consultancy (TCS) revenue fell from $29.89B to $28.60B in FY2026. Wipro (WIPR) slid from $11.02B (FY2023) to $9.92B, and its EBITDA dropped to $1.83B. Infosys (INFY) grew only 4.6% in FY2026, and EBITDA slipped to $4.43B. Part of this may reflect currency moves, since figures are converted to USD.

Management admits the cause. AI makes routine work cheaper, so clients pay less for it:

HCLTech’s CEO said the industry is "in the early phases of deflation," and the company guides for 2%–3% deflation in parts of its portfolio Read more (Oct 12, 2026).
Infosys cut its FY27 guidance to 1.5%–3.0%. Pricing deflation and offshore shift were cited, and HSBC downgraded the stock to Hold Read more (Jul 24, 2026).

HCLT+4.8%INFY+2.06%TCS+5.41%WIPR+2.9%

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The Boon Evidence

TCS: annualised AI revenue hit $3.1B, up nearly 20% quarter on quarter. Overall growth was only 0.5% sequentially, and deal value of $9.6B was below last year’s $10B Read more (Oct 9, 2026).
HCLTech: services grew 3% sequentially. About $50M of the $100M+ increment came from advanced AI. Another $50M came from core share gains.
HCLTech is also betting on a $151M stake in Sarvam AI and an AI data center. Management expects meaningful data center revenue only in late FY2028.

The market is rewarding that visibility. HCLTech has fallen least over the year, and it trades at the highest P/E of the four, at 18.1x.

Where the Forecasts Point

Consensus revenue looks flat to modestly rising. TCS is forecast at roughly $7.66B–$7.97B per quarter. Infosys is forecast at about $5.0B–$5.2B per quarter. Wipro is forecast at about $2.6B per quarter. HCLTech is the only one with a clear upward slope, from $3.69B to $3.94B.

Implications

Bull case: The sector trades at 12x–18x earnings. InvestingPro Fair Value upside is 48.8% for Infosys, 46.6% for Wipro, 42.5% for TCS and 21.6% for HCLTech. Today’s rally of 1.3%–3.9% suggests sentiment may be turning.
Bear case: Management says deflation has not fully played out. AI revenue could simply replace fading legacy revenue instead of adding to it.
Takeaway: AI is a boon for the firms that grow AI revenue faster than deflation shrinks the core business. HCLTech and TCS show early evidence of this. Infosys and Wipro have the least proof so far.

Screener values and Fair Value estimates are snapshots and may lag live prices.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Indian IT stocks and AI: These are the bull and bear cases

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印度 IT 股票与 AI：看涨与看跌的两种观点

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