美国到2030年需要多少电力？Bernstein上调需求增长预测

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How much power will the U.S. need through 2030?

AuthorPranav Kashyap

Stock Markets

Published Oct 11, 2026, 03:53 PM

How much power will the U.S. need through 2030?

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How much power will the U.S. need through 2030?

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Image 3: © Reuters.

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Investing.com - U.S. electricity demand is set to expand at a 4% compound annual growth rate through 2030, driven by an unprecedented surge in artificial intelligence data center construction, according to a research report from Bernstein Societe Generale Group.

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In the report, analysts Sunaina Ocalan and Raphael Lee upgraded the firm’s long-term power growth forecast from 3% previously, projecting roughly 1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of incremental U.S. power demand between 2025 and 2030. Data centers are expected to account for more than half of that incremental load.

"Power demand in the U.S. has grown at a 1.2% CAGR since 2019, and 0.3% CAGR since 2000, significantly lagging overall GDP growth," Bernstein wrote. "However, we are now witnessing a once-in-a-generation increase in power demand driven primarily from growth of data centers in the US."

Data center capacity to quadruple by 2030

Bernstein expects the U.S. share of global data centers to rise from 45% today to approximately 50% by the end of the decade.

Under the report’s baseline scenario - assuming a 1.25x Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) metric - U.S. data center IT load capacity will expand from 34 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to 149 GW by 2030, adding 115 GW of new capacity. This translates to over 500 TWh of new annual electricity consumption from digital facilities alone.

Other sectoral drivers contributing to total U.S. demand growth include:

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Industrial Reshoring: A modest rise in domestic manufacturing share is projected to add ~100 TWh of industrial load by 2030.
Residential Electrification: Widespread adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps is expected to generate 66 TWh and 69 TWh of incremental demand, respectively.

Natural gas and Solar to fill the supply gap

To meet burgeoning load requirements while offsetting planned coal plant retirements, Bernstein models natural gas and solar PV as the primary supply additions.

Gas-fired generation is forecast to grow at a 2.9% CAGR through 2030, increasing gas demand for power by approximately 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) annually. Solar generation is projected to lead overall growth with a 21% CAGR over the same period, despite policy headwinds.

Bernstein also manually factored in nuclear plant restarts, including Constellation Energy’s Three Mile Island unit, Holtec’s Palisades facility, and NextEra Energy’s Duane Arnold plant.

As interconnection queues stretch beyond three-year timelines, Bernstein noted that power consumers are increasingly seeking "behind-the-meter" and dispatchable, firm power solutions.

The firm highlighted several key equities positioned to capitalize on supply bottlenecks:

GE Vernova Inc. (Outperform, PT $1,298): Positioned to benefit from surging demand for gas turbines, grid equipment, and transmission upgrades.
Vistra Corp. (Outperform, PT $181): Flexible merchant generation fleet capitalized on rising capacity values in load-growth regions.
Constellation Energy Corp. (Outperform, PT $296): Nuclear fleet operator capitalizing on demand for carbon-free baseload power.
NextEra Energy Inc. (Outperform, PT $108): Well-positioned for clean power development pipelines and nuclear restarts.
Fervo Energy Co. (Outperform, PT $47): Emerging provider of firm, dispatchable geothermal generation.
Bloom Energy Corp.(Market-Perform, PT $282): On-site fuel cell provider benefiting from accelerated "behind-the-meter" power requirements.

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How much power will the U.S. need through 2030?

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