BlackRock 转向看好短期债券，结束美股超配

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BlackRock turns bullish on short-term bonds, closes US stock overweight

AuthorLuke Juricic

Stock Markets

Published Oct 12, 2026, 06:01 PM

BlackRock turns bullish on short-term bonds, closes US stock overweight

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BlackRock turns bullish on short-term bonds, closes US stock overweight

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Investing.com -- BlackRock Inc's (NYSE:BLK)investment research unit has upgraded U.S. Treasuries to overweight, stepping away from a mainstay underweight stance that had defined its strategy for most of the last six years. The shift reflects a significant reset in fixed-income valuations after yields surged to 24-year highs, creating what the firm views as an unusually attractive entry point for yield-seeking investors.

The strategy overhaul, led by BlackRock Investment Institute strategists Jean Boivin, Wei Li, and Rick Rieder, favors short-term government debt while lifting long-term Treasuries to neutral. To fund the reallocation and manage potential short-term volatility, the world’s largest asset manager trimmed its overweight position in U.S. equities back to neutral and reduced exposure to U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities.

The decision to end a six-year underweight in Treasuries, a position initiated when 10-year yields sat near 0.9% in October 2020, follows a 110 basis-point surge in 10-year yields this year to roughly 5.25%. BlackRock’s analysis shows that this yield spike has been driven primarily by higher real interest rates rather than escalating inflation expectations or expanding term premiums. Intensifying global competition for capital and heightened geopolitical friction in the Middle East have pushed up the neutral rate, causing markets to price in an additional 160 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening since January.

BlackRock views those hawkish market expectations as excessive. At current yield levels, the firm calculates that investors hold a 75-basis-point cushion against further rate increases over the next 12 months before total returns turn negative. That buffer provides substantial insulation, particularly at the short end of the yield curve where the potential for restrictive policy expectations to ease appears greatest.

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The capital reallocation is partly funded by taking profits on U.S. equities, closing out a long-held overweight position to establish a neutral stance. BlackRock framed the equity downgrade as a tactical risk-management adjustment tailored to a volatile macroeconomic regime, alongside heightened scrutiny around national AI policy and physical infrastructure execution across key regions.

Despite the near-term position reduction, BlackRock reiterated its structural conviction in the artificial intelligence transformation. Higher interest rates are widening the gap between high-performing businesses and weaker peers, favoring companies that deliver earnings above their cost of capital. BlackRock continues to prefer AI-focused equities, listed infrastructure, and emerging market equities, noting that S&P 500 earnings are projected to expand nearly 30% year-on-year in the third quarter.

The tactical reallocation comes during a period of sharp gyrations across sovereign bond markets. Global government bonds experienced pronounced volatility last week as 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields touched their highest levels since 2002 before easing following solid demand at Treasury auctions. European debt markets faced similar pressure, led by French sovereign debt as fiscal governance concerns mounted.

Investors now turn their attention to incoming U.S. consumer and producer price indices, which will offer the first snapshot of September inflation. With recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes confirming a cautious stance among policymakers, these inflation figures, alongside persistent energy price pressures, are expected to serve as the immediate catalyst shaping Fed policy expectations and Treasury yield trajectories.

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BlackRock turns bullish on short-term bonds, closes US stock overweight

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BlackRock 转向看好短期债券，结束美股超配

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