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Fed’s Collins signals further rate hikes likely as inflation risks persist

AuthorLuke Juricic

Stock Markets

Published Oct 13, 2026, 04:40 PM

Fed’s Collins signals further rate hikes likely as inflation risks persist

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Fed’s Collins signals further rate hikes likely as inflation risks persist

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Investing.com -- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins indicated Tuesday that additional monetary tightening will likely be necessary before the end of the year, pointing to persistent upside inflation risks even as the broader economy demonstrates underlying resilience and labor conditions remain stable.

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Speaking at the 25th Annual Regional and Community Bankers Conference hosted by the Boston Fed, Collins supported the central bank's recent decision to raise the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points while signaling that policymakers are prepared to act again to restore price stability.

"I also currently expect that it will be appropriate to raise rates a bit further before the end of the year to ensure a timely and durable return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent target," Collins said in her prepared remarks, emphasizing that her view on the timing and necessity of future moves remains contingent on incoming economic data.

Against that backdrop, total PCE inflation ran at an annual rate of 3.4% in August, while core PCE inflation stood at 3.0%, both remaining notably above the Fed's 2% target where they have lingered for five and a half years. While short-term annualized figures showed moderation, Collins warned that recent price spikes in refined petroleum products and capital-intensive spending tied to the artificial intelligence buildout are expected to keep near-term inflation elevated.

Meanwhile, real economic activity has gained momentum, with gross domestic product growth accelerating in the third quarter following a stronger-than-expected first half. Rather than signaling immediate demand-driven overheating, Collins highlighted that the economic acceleration partly reflects productive capacity expansion driven by labor productivity gains and early efficiency improvements from AI adoption.

Nevertheless, Collins outlined two alternate scenarios that carry near-equal weight to her baseline outlook, both emphasizing the threat of sticky inflation. One scenario sees AI-driven investment overheating labor and asset markets, while the other considers additional cost pressures stemming from ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and sustained tariff impacts.

Turning to regional financial conditions, Collins noted that New England community banks continue to successfully navigate competitive pressure for loans and deposits. Despite subdued credit expansion, regional earnings have improved from multi-year lows, supported by loan repricing and stabilized local deposit ratios, while bank merger activity has moderated from 2025 levels.

Ultimately, with downside risks to the labor market remaining limited and employment hovering near maximum levels, Collins emphasized that monetary policy must stay focused on curbing inflation risks. Policymakers are scheduled to gather in Washington for the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 27–28.

Fed’s Collins signals further rate hikes likely as inflation risks persist

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