五项重大分析师 AI 动向：Gemini 智能体发布后，Google 再获首选地位

BMO Capital Markets has reiterated an Outperform rating and Top Pick status on Alphabet after the company unveiled Gemini Agent, a unified enterprise AI agent, putting it in direct competition with Meta’s Muse and OpenAI’s Dots.

BMO analysts believe Alphabet is "well-positioned to scale AI agents across the enterprise," given connections to critical workflows including Microsoft Office, Salesforce and ServiceNow, and direct integrations into its own product suite. About 80% of Google Cloud customers already use Google’s AI products, with around 500 enterprise customers each processing over 1 trillion tokens in the past year.

The analysts highlighted a 98% drop in cost per token since 2024, even as AI-related revenue has soared on rising enterprise volumes that BMO said are still in the early innings.

"We also expect cost-to-serve AI to continue declining meaningfully as infrastructure scales, hardware improves, and optimizations occur across the entire AI stack," they wrote, adding that expert calls suggest token prices may bottom around 2030, after which closed-source model providers may seek to raise prices.

Alphabet "remains a clear leader across the AI stack," BMO stressed, arguing that full-stack ownership will let it benefit from optimizations at every layer as AI scales. The Gemini Agent launch and Gemini 4 Argo release help offset fears that Alphabet is losing its edge in the AI race, the analysts said.

Citi names its top chip stocks ahead of Q3 earnings

Citi has named AMD, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Teradyne and Synopsys as its top Buy-rated semiconductor picks ahead of third-quarter earnings, saying it is becoming "increasingly selective" on the sector after a sharp rebound.

Analyst Atif Malik noted the SOX index has rebounded notably from its summer correction, in line with Citi’s earlier call. The industry remains in "Phase 2" of the bank’s playbook, supported by robust data center demand — now about 40% of the semiconductor market — and a continuing recovery in auto and industrial markets at roughly 20% of demand, while PC and smartphone demand remains weak.

Estimate revision momentum slowed in the second quarter, with further moderation expected in the third. Networking, semiconductor equipment and analog chips show the strongest momentum, followed by compute and memory.

Citi expects the largest sales estimate revisions in compute, particularly networking names such as Marvell and Astera Labs and CPU-exposed names AMD, Intel and Nvidia, followed by analog names Texas Instruments and Analog Devices, then equipment makers Lam Research and Teradyne.

"While 4Q is typically a seasonally weaker quarter for analog semis, we expect most companies to guide above seasonal trends," Malik said.

Wall Street raises targets on Marvell after analyst day

Earlier this week, Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on Marvell Technology after the chipmaker laid out a much larger long-term revenue outlook at its analyst day.

Management raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion from $18 billion and introduced a fiscal 2031 framework of $70-90 billion at the midpoint of $80 billion — roughly 10 times fiscal 2026 levels — targeting earnings above $30 per share, gross margins of 56-59% and a 2030 addressable market of about $400 billion.

TD Cowen upgraded to Buy from Hold, raising its target to $350 from $245. Analyst Sean O’Loughlin said growth drivers have "fully shifted" to Marvell’s connectivity franchise and that concentration and margin risk tied to custom chips "has been largely de-risked," with custom accelerators now about 19% of the 2030 target versus more than 40% of expectations last year.

He acknowledged TD Cowen’s downgrade a year ago was "very wrong" about connectivity, while cautioning the market is unlikely to give full credit to the targets given investor focus on risks in 2028 or earlier.

Jefferies raised its target to $450 from $325, calling $30 of 2030 EPS "conservative" with potential for $35-40 depending on mix, and said the $37.5 billion interconnect target for fiscal 2031 was "well ahead of expectations."

Separately, Stifel upped its target to $370 from $350, saying the targets are built bottom-up with "no single mega socket required," with scenario analysis putting fiscal 2031 EPS between $24.30 and $40.59.

B. Riley also raised its price objective to $365 from $315, noting the 2030 sales and earnings targets were 73% and 67% above consensus, with the model resting on more than 100 active projects.

Susquehanna raised to $340 from $265, saying opex should grow at half the pace of revenue through fiscal 2031.

Citi cuts NXP to Neutral on limited data center exposure, muted auto outlook

Citi has downgraded NXP Semiconductors to Neutral from Buy, cutting its price target to $260 from $370, saying it expects weaker earnings estimate revisions than peers heading into 2027.

Analyst Atif Malik said Citi believes the analog upturn is "more than halfway through," with further upside increasingly driven by data center buildouts, an area where NXP has limited exposure at just 3-4% of sales, the lowest among peers. By contrast, 56% of revenue is tied to the automotive market, where demand remains subdued.

Citi lowered its 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates to $16.30 and $18.64 from $16.61 and $21, now in line with the Street, on weaker auto and industrial assumptions. The new $260 target applies a 14 times P/E multiple to 2028 earnings, down from 17 times, in line with NXP’s five-year average and reflecting its lower data center exposure relative to peers.

The downgrade is part of a more selective stance on chip stocks following the SOX index’s rebound from its summer correction. Citi also downgraded Universal Display to Sell with a $71 target, citing smartphone market weakness next year, and moved Nova to Neutral with a $415 target, saying its risk-reward looks balanced.

Truist initiates IBM at Hold, stays cautious on near-term execution

Truist Securities has initiated coverage of IBM at Hold with a $240 price target, saying it is constructive on the company’s long-term position in enterprise computing but cautious on near-term execution.

Analysts led by Arvind Ramnani said IBM is positioned across four areas: the mainframes where much of the world’s transaction data resides, software that works across AI models, Red Hat, and a consulting arm that helps clients deploy AI.

The central question is timing. "When will enterprise spending on AI infrastructure translate into demand for IBM?" they asked.

Software now makes up 45% of revenue and 61% of segment pre-tax income, with about 80% of it recurring and annual recurring revenue of $24.6 billion growing 8%. The analysts called IBM’s second-quarter miss "an execution and timing issue rather than a structural problem," noting clients shifted budgets toward servers, storage and memory to secure supply-constrained AI hardware, while dozens of large mainframe-linked software contracts were deferred rather than canceled.

IBM lowered its full-year constant-currency revenue growth guidance to 4-5% from 5%-plus, sizing the software shortfall at $400-500 million.

IBM shares fell more than 20% after the miss, mostly through multiple compression, with forward P/E dropping to 16 times from 22 times. The stock now trades at about 17 times forward earnings. The analysts said three catalysts could make them more constructive: deferred contracts closing without meaningful discounts, a sustained improvement in Transaction Processing growth, and stronger organic software growth rather than acquisition-driven gains.

5 big analyst AI moves: Google reaffirmed as top pick after Gemini agent launch

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